22 Jan 2016

Bullish on Twitter

Though stock has taken a plunge, I am still very bullish on $TWTR. Here is my sentimental logic :-)

Efficiency of network is a measure of how quickly things move through it.

For example efficient network of roads lets you reach your destination faster. Internet is by design efficient as it routs the packets of information along the route of least resistance.

Network Connections

Twitter is actually very efficient in spreading the word. Here is the reason.A network should NOT be measured by number of users or number of eyeballs on a specific advertisement. The superiority of the information network is in the number of meaningful connections. Number of meaningful connections determine “How quickly information moves from one place to another. Facebook tries to achieve information dissemination thru intelligent maneuvering of news feed. Twitter accomplishes the same through vastly more number of connections.

Leader to Follower

The model “Leader to Follower” has unlimited growth potential. If a leader has a million followers that means a million connections. On the other hand; most other networks follow Facebook’s “Friend to Friend” model, which limits the network growth. Twitter, by design, is a place where a leader wants to grow his network. Facebook on the other hand is a place where privacy is the key. Facebook has tried to change its DNA in recent years and there are people with million followers on Facebook but that is like “a right person in a wrong place”.

Privacy Concerns

Twitter has no privacy concerns cuz everything is open by design. All other networks have privacy issues. As the social media becomes main stream, the privacy issues are going to exponentially increase.


Be it a news reader or person getting interviewed. People identify themselves with their Twitter handle. A true transfer of public ID from email to Twitter handle is happening. Have you ever seen someone giving you his phone number or email address anymore on TV?


Facebook has recently launched “FB for Work”. This is a sure way to make some short term money but once you identify a brand with Work, its going Staples route. Work is Dell, Mac is life.

Update after one year - Jan 2017

I continue to hold twitter for long run. Stock has moved to low 15 and touched high 25 during last one yeat but now at 17 is exactly same as January 16. Lots of Analysts have changed their minds. Sometime against, other times for. It doesn’t matter as this is a long term bet. Meanwhile under Jack Dorsey, Twitter is continuously improving the product and adding new features. The moments feature is maturing. It provides another layer of user curated content. The TV apps for moments need further improvemnet though its my favorite to catch up with the latest. Elections 2017, have shown the value of social channels vs established media.